One of the major factors behind the strength in the stock market in recent years has been what some have called TINA, or “There Is No Alternative” (to owning stocks). The idea here is that in a world of negative interest rates investors have no choice but to buy stocks as “bond alternatives.” Earlier this year I called this phenomenon part of, “the greatest reach for yield in history.”
The trouble is interest rates have recently gotten up off of the floor and started rising pretty rapidly. With the 10-year treasury yield back above 2% today and the 30-year yield pushing 3% these “risk-free” rates of return could begin to challenge the TINA thesis. And the more they rise, the greater the challenge grows to this popular perception underpinning the stock market… which is why I’m paying very close attention to bonds right now:
Powerful move here in the 30-year yield… pic.twitter.com/3LX71CIGgV
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 9, 2016
What is it that’s got bonds so worked up the day after the election? I think it’s something along these lines:
Bulls: Deficit spending on infrastructure will be awesome for the economy.
Bears: But will Janet Yellen be around to buy all those bonds?
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 9, 2016
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