As the best-performing asset class in Q1 there has been a lot of talk about gold lately. The debate seems to focus on whether this strength marks the end of the four-year bear market for the precious metal or whether it’s just another counter-trend rally.
Looking at the chart above, I’m reminded of a quote from Paul Tudor Jones in the book, “Market Wizards.”
“When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.” -Paul Tudor Jones
There appear to be a pair of, “range expansions,” on the chart. The first was the breakdown back in early 2013 which served as a, “very loud, clear signal,” that the bull market was over. Afterwards, gold continued to trend lower for the next few years.
This recent surge higher appears to be a similar sort of, “range expansion,” only this time it is bullish rather than bearish. This doesn’t mean that gold will immediately continue higher but it does suggest that the recent rally is probably more than just a flash in the pan.